Elon Musk has been nothing short of bullish on the prospects of his electric car company, Tesla Motors, though the legions of loyal fans may be even more optimistic than the pioneering CEO. One fan laid out an ambitious timeline for the electric automaker that by 2022 sees a market dominated by Tesla in every market.
The timeline is far from official, and much of it certainly seems within the realm of possibility. For example, the timeline calls for sales of 5,000 Model X SUVs in 2014, which is well within the production capacity of Tesla’s Palo Alto plant. More than doubling sales of the Model S, however, to 50,000 units in 2014 may be a bit of a stretch considering a lack of available battery packs.
It also makes sense for Tesla to introduce the $35,000 Model E prototype to be introduced sometime in 2015, a year or two ahead of actual production. The announcement of a new Tesla/Panasonic “Giga Factory” is also possible, and sales of the Tesla Model S could possibly reach as high as 70,000 units, with Model X sales around 40,000 units.
From here though things begin to escalate quickly. While a 500-mile battery pack is theoretically possible for the Model S, even if battery pack prices plummet you’re still talking about a massive and heavy battery. That said, it is certainly possible that by 2017 or 2018 Tesla will roll out a new autopilot/self-driving feature that Elon has mentioned in passing before.
By 2020, the fan-made timeline predicts sales of over 300,000 units annually, and by 2022 most automakers will be using Tesla batteries and drivetrains for their own EVs, while paying Tesla a tithe for access to an extensive Supercharger network. More realistically is the introduction of an affordable Model C compact, priced around $25,000. That sounds hopelessly optimistic, and while I can see Tesla sales really starting to take off, I doubt automakers like Nissan and GM are going to bid goodbye to billions of dollars in EV research just to pay Tesla for its technology.
That said, Tesla Motors has defied expectations before, and I wouldn’t put anything past Elon these days.
Source: Tesla Motors Forums