We have to eat crow. That is the civilized way to say it. What we wrote was completely off. It was logical, believable, and wrong. After submitting it, I thought I should have included that famous line about complex problems having simple answers that are completely wrong — a point I did prove. Another way of saying it, it was FUBAR. Like many other people, we were fooled by a desire for Tesla progress and trust in the Bloomberg Tracker. There was a nagging feeling it was too optimistic, but no expectation that it was this far off.
It was supported by rumors from Gigafactory 1 (GF1) that battery pack production was at a steady 6,000+. Those are either in storage, or those reports were too optimistic, too.
What is happening with Model 3 production is worth a long explanation by
ol’ Musky Elon Musk, himself, during the next TSLA conference call. These production numbers are too low to sustain and produce the Standard Range ($35K) version with an acceptable margin.
The only good thing in this report is the low number of Model S & X produced. That sounds strange, but it is better to adjust production to sales as early as possible than to produce a large number of cars in stock … and I have a feeling that (without the SEC meddling) we would have known more– but that’s for later.